FINA points are calculated from a 'base' time which is the average of the all-time world top ten performances (one performance per swimmer so, e.g. Michael P and Ian T only get one entry each). FINA plan to update them every four years after the Olympic Games (unlike swimnews 'International Points Scores' which are updated each year) so they'll be updated at the end of this year and be known as FINA2008 points.
Come 1 January 2009 some swimmers may be in for a shock when they see how much change there is in their favourite event; an 800 point swim now may be only 775 on the new tables because there has been an unrelenting increase in standards for at least the last 20 years. This is a good thing. It serves as a self-regulating ramp-up of our Mining for Gold system where we ask 700-750-800 points for qualification on Youth Bronze, Silver or Gold squads and 900 points for qualification to World Short Course Championships - if the points stay the same next year the time associated with the points will be faster. Highly likely the standard for the 2009 World Championships in Rome (all roads lead to ...) will be 900 so everyone had better get their watery skates on.
The FINA2008 points will stay in place till after the London Olympics in 2012 so it is likely that after 2009 SNZ will adopt another ramp-up effect by increasing the points required at each level; e.g. 700 in 2009 may go to 720 in 2010, 740 in 2011 and 760 in 2012. The details will be finalised when we see the 2008 'base' standards and can guage the degree of change required to bring success in 2010 and 2012.
The change is likely to be significant; it only takes one swim faster than the all-time 10th best during the four years since Athens2004 to increase the base time and, as you will know there were three long course and two short course world records in seven days in February alone. In fact during February alone there were 28 long course swims faster than the 10th placed time on the all-time world list as at the end of 2007, never mind end 2004! A lot of those 28 swims were by swimmers who are already in the all-time top 10 but there is no doubt the tables will change - in the women's 50m freestyle seven out of the all-time top-10 times have been done since 1 January 2007. The message is, 'swim fast or go home!'
On the left of the tables below I show the base times for each 4-year period back to 1988 (following the Seoul Olympic Games) and the base time as it would have been if calculated at the end of 2007. On the right-hand side I show what these base times would have scored using the current FINA2004 standards - obviously anything in the 2004 column scores 1,000 points because that's what it says on the box - 2004! Data source is swimnews. As usual, click on the image for a full-sized version.
Graphically we can see the almost linear increase in standards during the 20 year period so it is not a stretch of the imagination to see that end 2008 the base will be pretty close to the current 1025 level.
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