Meety success

Well, it's started. people have started to trash the NZ results at the recent World Junior Championships. Understandable really as we only won five golds, making us third on the medal table. The trashing centres around the PB rate which was 57% and lays the 'blame' on allowing swims in non-qualified events.

The reaction raises important questions about how meets and team performances should be analysed. We've been through this before, starting in 2002 when I published the following:

2002 Commonwealth Games Results Analysis

There is no single, satisfactory way of analysing results from a major competition. PB’s, medals, records and rankings are each relevant but no single one of them tells the story of the individual and team performances relative to the opposition in any meet’s particular circumstances. Ian Thorpe won a series of events in Manchester but very few of his swims were PB’s. In the recent US Nationals Erik Vendt did not win the 400m IM but was under the world record in losing!

The CWG results were then analysed split into two parts – qualified swims and non-qualified swims. The qualified swims were those in which the swimmer achieved the SNZ/NZOC qualifying time for the competition and on which their selection for Manchester was based. The non-qualified swims are those events in which swimmers had not achieved the SNZ/NZOC qualifying time but were entered in order to ‘get them into the meet’, give them a chance in one of their other strong events or to keep them busy during the 6 days of competition! The analysis was split in that way because, although all events should have been swum purposefully, the team evaluation should be based on the ‘selection’ events rather than including events which have been added for strategic purposes. As an example, Liz Van Welie’s programme of selected events was:

Swimming day 1 200m IM Heats and Final
Swimming day 6 200m Butterfly Heats and Final
400m IM Heats and Final

Clearly this was an unsatisfactory schedule so the 100m Butterfly was added to Liz’s programme on day 3 (heats and semi-finals). Her heat and semi-final times were slightly slower than her entry time but so what? Liz’s outstanding success in Manchester should be judged on the way she prepared and competed in her selection events. The data from the additional ‘non-qualified’ swims was therefore shown separately so that a full picture of the team performances could be seen.

The main analysis was centred on the amount the NZ swimmers’ race performance attacked the GAP between a) their entry time and the pre-meet number 1 and b) between their entry time and the gold medal time. Those two statistics could well be the most important ones of all. Setting PB’s may make swimmers and coaches feel good but it ignores the possibility that we may be getting better yet falling further behind at the same time. The PB itself doesn’t give enough information and may be irrelevant to the evaluation – Thorpe doesn’t do a PB and wins, Vendt does a PB and doesn’t win. The average GAP attack for all qualified swims at Manchester in 2002 was 16.4% against the pre-meet number 1 and 12.6% against the winning time. The GAP attack of pre- to post-meet rankings averaged 20.9% (e.g. Pre-meet ranking of 7th means there are 6 possible places above that. If the swimmer finishes in 4th place they have moved 3 places out of the possible 6 or, in other words, closed 50% of the GAP.

New Zealand Records (NZR) and New Zealand Age Group Records (NZAGR) were indicated as appropriate. Two of the records in Manchester were set in the swimmer’s ‘last’ swim of an event whilst 5 were set in preliminary rounds with a slower performance following in the more important later round. This was a significant and worrying fact and still remains as a concern although major strides have been taken by some programmes. Following the 2002 Games SNZ Squad qualification at the short course Winter Championships considered only the ‘last’ swim in an event specifically because of this apparent inability to lift the performance above an already high level. Anything faster in an earlier round was not taken into consideration.

Brining this criteria into force for all selections may be a dangerous move as coaches may allow their swimmers to drift back into the 'heats are only for cruising' attitude we saw back then. Things have improved dramatically in that regard although there is still room for big improvement across the board.

As we move off of Beijing and start to focus on Rome, Delhi and London we need to have an agreed, accepted, common method of analysing results. It shouldn't be 'merely' PB's, it shouldn't be 'only' wins unless the meet is a pinnacle event at whatever age, i.e. World Juniors is a pinnacle event for 18 and unders and winning is important, Regional Championships are not pinnacle events and PB's are the thing. It has to be an agreed combination of factors which reflect the effectiveness of the programme, the preparation and the on-site execution.

Phelps WR count

Whoever predicted 1-3 for the world record count by Michael Phelps at the US Olympic Trials was surprisingly correct. I thought he would post quite a few more than that.

I have my suspicions as to who it was but, whoever, congratulations.

PB measures

Clive Power's report from the recent, very successful FINA World Junior Championships in Mexico will show a 57% PB strike rate from the New Zealand swimmers. John Leonard recently posted the stats from the US Olympic Trials.

The average from the heats was 44% and from finals was 74%, both significantly up from four years ago. That's more like it.

Speed through Endurance

The title of this post is the famous principle by legend Forbes Carlisle and I was reminded of it by an article on swimnews recently pointing out that Ryk Neethling had finaled in both the 1996 and 2000 1,500 freestyle events then gold medaled in the 4 x 100 in Athens 2004.

The example of starting in the distance events before developing into a world-class sprint star is not unusual. Tom Jager (pictured in what has to be the best ever picture of a power start) first held the world 50m record on 6 December 1985 and eventually reliquished it on 16 June 2000, taking it from 22.52 to 21.81. However, the first time he qualified for US Nationals he did so on the 1,500. Mark Spitz held the 400m freestyle world record twice. Ian Thorpe combined a 48.56 100m and a 7:39.16 800m.

It's highly unusual for a swimmer to be good at short and long distances at the same time, although Shane Gould managed to hold the world records at all distances from 100m through 1,500m during the 1970's (FINA did not recognise the 50m at that time), and Brett Naylor won the NZ Championships at every freestyle distance, 50m through 1,500m, but they are exceptional exceptions. It's not unusual, though, for swimmers to stand out at different distances as they develop and mature. In these cases the pattern is invarably long to short, giving substance to the 'rule' that younger swimmers should be given a substantial diet of aerobic-based work and lending evidence to the 'command' of Carlisle; speed through endurance.

The Magical Number Nine (or Twelve)

Mark Spitz' seven gold medals in seven world records in 1972 remains the benchmark of a perfect swim meet but it could all be history in a few weeks time.

In early March I posted a blog entitled The Magical Number Seven about the possibility of club team mates Kaite Hoff and Michael Phelps each going for seven and the possibility that Hoff may do it BEFORE Phelps. One or both of them may make it to the cover of Rolling Stone magazine like Spitz did in 1973.

The USA trials start this coming Sunday, 29 June, and run through to 6 July, mirroring the eight days of Olympic competition and while Hoff has entered seven events with the possibility of making at least two relays Phelps has entered a staggering nine events and will likely make all three relays. Apart from his usual 100 and 200 on both fly and free and 200 and 400 IM he has decided to have a go at the 400 free, 100 and 200 back. So let's have a poll on how many world records he sets.

Trendy Excellence

Nick Thierry at swimnews kindly provided me with the results of all Olympic games and World Championships back to 1988. They provide fascinating reading to anyone interested in the trends and progressions in our sport.

I've transcribed them into graphical display and also converted the actual times in each event to FINA points. Nick won't like that because he invented the IPS points and they each use a different formula to produce the results, however the FINA system is open source so its easy for anyone to duplicate it on their computer.

FINA will update their points at the end of each Olympic quadrenniel but I've used the 2004 calculations right through from 1988 to 2007 for ease of comparison. See this article for a look at the changes over the years.

An interesting point of the analysis is the lack of pattern in many events between 1st, 3rd, 8th. and 16th places. Another is the significant rise in standard across most events at the 2000 Sydney Games. That was when Speedo introduced the new racing suits. This year with the next generation of suits from all manufacturers we are seeing an even greater jump in standards.

During the recent SCAT Conference I showed the series of graphs and you can see and download the Excel file here.

Bear Necessities

Tom's club competed in a country carvival type meet last weekend on Vancouver Island. It seems a splendid time was had by all but the highlight was something you're unlikely to encounter in Godzone:

'Warmdown at the meet was running around the play area and park next to the pool, the highlight of the first day came during a game of catch which was interrupted by a young bear wandering through the park!'