GO Long Distance: You Got A Point There!

FINA points are calculated using the average time of the all-time top 10 performers. This top 10 average is the 1,000 point time with faster performances scoring more then 1,000 and slower scoring less. The ‘base’ time is updated every four years following the Olympic Games so the points/times we currently use are based on the FINA Points Scoring 2004. This is an example of the data currently being used for the Women’s 400 FR:

The average of these ten times is 4:05.64 which would score 1,000 points should it be equalled by a Kiwi swimmer. After Beijing this will change to FINA Points Scoring 2008 so it is interesting to look at what might happen to the standards.

This table shows the 1,000 point standard for the ‘distance’ events for each four years from 1988 to 2004 and the current situation so far for 2007 (remember they are all-time performances, not annual rankings).

As you can see the men’s 1,000 standard improved 3.79 (400), 8.66 (800) and 13.56 (1,500) from 1988 to 2004, an average of 0.95, 2.17 and 3.39 per Olympiad. If that average was repeated for the 2004-08 Olympiad the resultant times would be 3:43.36, 7:45.50 and 14:45.50, all faster than the 2007 standard so far, so some good racing expected next year (surprise!)

However, the women’s events tell a different story. The 1988-2004 improvement was 1.09 (400), 1.22 (800) and 4.62 (1,500), for averages per Olympiad of 0.27, 0.31 and 1.15, all significantly less than the men. If this average is carried forward to 2008 the times would be 4:05.37, 8:21.54 and 16:02.88 BUT the 2007 times are already faster than those for all three events. So what has happened?

The most obvious guess is the lingering effect of the doped swims from the GDR Wundermadschen. The impression is that the women’s world rankings from 1972 through 1989 were stacked with GDR performances which were fuelled by performance-enhancing drugs.

The reality, however, is surprisingly different; in 1988 the GDR women had 23% of the all-time top-10 400, 800 and 1,500 rankings.
That’s a pretty impressive statistic until you check out the other distance giants, USA and Australia which had 43% and 30% respectively.

The GDR effect would seem not to be the answer then. What does look significant is the age of the swimmers when they set their best performances; in 1988 the average age of the swimmers was 17.3 years whereas by 2007 that has risen to 19.7, almost two and a half years older, two and a half years fitter, two and a half years stronger and two and a half years wiser.

So, although, there will still be youngsters who exhibit incredible power-to-weight ratios as they skip along the surface, the secret of swimming fast seems to be to keep swimming, keep training, keep racing and actually reach potential rather than simply threaten to. And, the women's 1,000 point standard will jump dramatically next year.

Click on a year to see the raw data.
1988